Super cycles are ultimately capital expenditure cycles. When prices rise, miners and drillers approve projects — but those projects take 5–15 years to reach production. The result is a lagged supply response that overshoots demand just as demand growth slows, creating the bust phase.

Key mechanics:

Reserve depletion: existing fields decline 3–8% annually, requiring continuous capex just to stand still
Permitting lag: new mines average 10+ years from discovery to first ore in OECD jurisdictions
Capital discipline: post-2015, shareholders demanded buybacks over growth, suppressing supply response

Phase	Price Signal	Capex Response	Supply Arrives
Recovery	Rising	Exploration up	Year 5–7
Boom	Peak	FID wave	Year 8–12
Bust	Falling	Cancellations	Oversupply